Tottenham Hotspur are battling to qualify for next season’s Champions League but their hopes took a hit on Saturday with defeat to Fulham at Craven Cottage
Tottenham Hotspur’s battle to qualify for next season’s Champions League is likely to go down to the wire after Ange Postecoglou’s men suffered defeat on Saturday evening.
Spurs knew they would move over Aston Villa and into the top four if they defeated Fulham this past weekend. Regret was to come, though, as Marco Silva’s team won 3-0 at Craven Cottage thanks to a strike from Sasa Lukic sandwiched between a brace from Rodrigo Muniz.
Not only did Spurs’ pride suffer, but so did their chances of making it into the Champions League the following year. Football.london has examined what Postecoglou’s team needs to accomplish below in order to advance to the Champions League.
What Tottenham must do to finish in the top four
First things first: finishing in the Premier League top four means automatic qualification for the Champions League group stages the following season. Spurs currently sit fifth in the table, on 53 points, three points behind fourth-placed Aston Villa having played a game less (28) than Unai Emery’s men (29).
Spurs will go level on points with Villa if they win their game in hand. In terms of goal difference, Spurs (+17) only trail Villa by one (+18), so a 1-0 victory in that game in hand would leave both teams level on points, goals scored and goals conceded. In short, it’s a tight battle.
Were Spurs and Villa to win all their remaining games, fourth place would come down to goal difference. Therefore, to guarantee fourth place, Spurs must either simply outshoot Villa in terms of points in their remaining games – a solitary point would do it – or outscore them in terms of goal difference if both sides finished level on points.
Now here’s where things get tricky. If Spurs and Villa were to finish on the same number of points, the same goal difference and the same number of goals scored, then fourth place would come down to which team has earned the most points in their head-to-head League matches this season. Both Villa and Spurs beat each other away this season, but there’s a further decider: Villa won 2-1 in north London in November, but Spurs thrashed Emery’s side 4-0 at Villa Park on 10 March – and Spurs’ superior away goals in head-to-heads would tip the balance in their favour.
Given all the talk of the battle against Villa, Spurs also have to be looking over their shoulder at Manchester United side who, while unpredictable in terms of results, are more than capable of making a late play for fourth place.
How can Tottenham ensure they finish above United?
United were boosted by Villa and Spurs’ slip-ups at the weekend but still sit sixth, with 47 points after 28 games: that’s nine behind Villa with a game in hand, and six behind Spurs on the same number of matches played. Should Spurs pick up 25 points from the remaining 30 available, they are certain to finish above United in the table.
Spurs can only hope to reach that goal of 25 points if Erik ten Hag’s team wins all of their remaining games. Spurs’ job will be made simpler by any draws or defeats for United, but 24 points should be sufficient to finish ahead of United even with Ten Hag’s team sitting on a goal difference of 0 following a goalless season.
If United were to catch Tottenham, a difficult three-game stretch that could determine their fate—Spurs vs. Newcastle away on April 13, Arsenal at home on April 27, and Liverpool at home on May 4—will probably be critical.
Will fifth place be enough for the Champions League?
Given all the talk of fourth place, an added caveat is that UEFA rules and coefficient rankings mean a fifth-placed Premier League finish may well be enough to qualify for the Champions League. UEFA are set to Next season, increase the competition.
The top two countries in the UEFA coefficient rankings will receive two more spots in the group stages. The results of each member country in the three European competitions are used to determine these rankings.
As things stand, Spain is currently slightly ahead of Italy and Germany in the rankings, and England is almost certain to receive an additional Champions League qualifying berth. Thus, even if Villa or United surpass Spurs for fourth place, Spurs would still qualify for the Champions League group stage in 2024–2025 if they finish fifth.
