With the Springboks kicking off their Rugby Championship campaign against Australia in Johannesburg, we take a stab at predicting Rassie Erasmus’ matchday 23.
Erasmus has continued the theme of chopping and changing his teams this year after utilising 50 players last year, but he has stated that a more settled squad will feature in the Rugby Championship, which is a ‘step up’ from the challenges faced in July.
Still, predicting who will feature in a Springboks matchday 23 remains a mighty challenge, but Planet Rugby has taken up the fool’s errand for their clash against the Wallabies.
15 Damian Willemse
Having been out for the entire 2024 international season through injury, Damian Willemse’s ban saw him miss the opening game of the year against the Barbarians.
However, the youngest-ever double Rugby World Cup winner marked his return to the Green and Gold jersey in the first Test match against Italy before featuring off the bench against Georgia.
Before his injury, Willemse was the go-to selection at full-back, starting in each of the play-off matches in France, and while Aphelele Fassi shone last year in the number 15 jumper and against the Baa-Baas and Georgia, we predict that the Stormers star will get the nod.
The depth in the role is highlighted by the fact that Fassi, Willemse, Willie le Roux and even Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu could all run out in the number 15 jersey, and that’s before looking at the likes of Cheslin Kolbe and Kurt-Lee Arendse.
14 Cheslin Kolbe
There is a caveat with Kolbe’s selection; it is purely fitness-dependent. After the first week of the Bok training camp, Erasmus issued an almost clean bill of health with the exception of Kolbe and Canan Moodie, who were carrying niggles.
The Bok said that the 31-year-old ‘had a bit of a knee issue’ but seemed ‘okay’ and hoped that he would be back in training the following Monday. No update has been provided since.
If fit, surely Kolbe plays as the box-office talent hasn’t played since the second Test match against Italy on July 5. Edwill van der Merwe could well retain his place in the starting XV if the veteran winger is not available, with the Lions star chasing a remarkable feat of becoming the first Springbok to score in each of his first four Test matches.
He crossed the whitewash in the first game in the Green and Gold jersey against Wales last year and grabbed two tries against Italy and Georgia last month.
13 Jesse Kriel
In the final game of the incoming series, Erasmus tested the combination of Moodie and Damian de Allende for the first time, giving Jesse Kriel time off after he captained the Boks against the Baa-Baas and Italy.
While the centre pairing worked well against Georgia, the most capped Springboks midfield pairing of all-time is surely going to reunite to tackle the Wallabies. Kriel is renowned for his defensive expertise, which will be key against the likes of Len Ikitau and Joseph Suaalii, but has thrived in Tony Brown’s attacking systems too.
12 Damian de Allende
There is certainly scope for Andre Esterhuizen to come into the starting XV, but De Allende has made the number 12 jersey his own and is the go-to pick in the big matches.
With Erasmus stating that he will be selecting a more settled squad in the Rugby Championship, it’s hard to see anyone else but De Allende in the run-on team.
11 Kurt-Lee Arendse
When the Springboks have gone full hog, Kolbe and Arendse have been the starting wingers. There is no lack of options, with Moodie able to cover the position as well, while Kolbe is also capable of starting along with Van der Merwe. However, we’d predict that Arendse will fill one of the wing roles.
10 Handre Pollard
Any one of Manie Libbok, Feinberg-Mngomezulu or Handre Pollard could be running out as the starting number 10 on Saturday, only highlighting the ludicrous depth as the Boks can pick between two World Cup winners and one of the brightest prospects in the game right now.
Then there is the versatility option of Willemse, who is unlikely to grab the number 10 jersey, but one can never rule out a shock Erasmus call.
All three of the aforementioned fly-halves started a Test match in July, which creates even more doubt about who will get the nod. Pollard started the first Test against the Azzurri and came off the bench against Georgia. Like with the De Allende selection, we predict that Pollard gets the nod with a view of starting the tournament off strongly. It’s a coin toss, shot in the dark, a pure guess.
9 Morne van den Berg
Another tough one to predict as the Springboks could quite easily select Grant Williams or Cobus Reinach, who both impressed last month.
Williams is viewed by many as the first-choice number nine, but with the game taking place at Ellis Park, we predict that Erasmus will give Lions scrum-half Morne van den Berg the nod on his home ground.
The half-back is highly thought of by the Bok coaching staff and did make the most of his opportunities during the mid-year internationals. He started alongside Pollard in the first Test against the Azzurri, and we predict that they will rekindle that partnership on the Highveld again.
8 Jean-Luc du Preez
Jasper Wiese’s suspension has created a void in the Springboks’ pack, and while his brother Cobus filled it against Georgia, we predict another change is coming.
Kwagga Smith has played in the Bok number eight jersey previously, while Siya Kolisi and Pieter-Steph du Toit have filled the position for their clubs.
Those are certainly solid options, but having returned to the Bok squad following his concussion and the birth of his child, surely Jean-Luc du Preez gets a shot in the matchday team.
The back-rower hasn’t played a Test match for South Africa since 2023 and has been slamming on the selection door, finally earning a recall before the mid-year international. If not Du Preez, surely Wiese gets the nod again.
7 Pieter-Steph du Toit
While Erasmus is not shy to tinker with his team, it’s very seldom that Du Toit does not play when he is fit. Therefore, we predict that he will be named in the number seven jersey again.
Vincent Tshituka played the first two matches of the year in Du Toit’s absence, with the latter returning to start against the Azzurri and Georgia. Other options include Wiese and Du Preez, depending on the selection at number eight, while Smith has also played at blindside flanker for South Africa previously.
Ruan Nortje and Franco Mostert could also shift to the number seven jersey.
6 Siya Kolisi
A straightforward selection? It’s never quite that easy when it comes to Erasmus’ matchday squads, but considering the fact that Kolisi only played against Georgia, he will get the nod for the Wallabies encounter.
Marco van Staden and Smith are the other players who could fill the role, but it is somewhat unlikely.
5 Lood de Jager
The Springboks’ locking stocks are frankly overflowing with Erasmus spoilt for choice and can’t really go wrong with whoever he selects.
Considering the performance of the Wallabies’ lineout during the British and Irish Lions series, we’d predict that the Bok boss will back arguably their best lineout general, Lood de Jager, in the number five jersey.
That means that Mostert, RG Snyman and Nortje are overlooked for the starting loosehead lock role but could well feature on the bench.
4 Eben Etzebeth
Again, there is no shortage of options, but if Erasmus sticks by his view of selecting a settled team for the Rugby Championship opener, then Eben Etzebeth starts.
The most-capped Springbok of all time is also a world-class lineout operator and will be eager to pack down alongside De Jager again.
3 Wilco Louw
One of the most destructive tighthead props in rugby right now, Wilco Louw, looks to be an easy call in the starting line-up, especially with Frans Malherbe set to be sidelined for the entire international season.
Louw returned to the international fold last November and made an immediate impact with his form at the Bulls, earning him a recall for the 2024 Test season.
There is a chance that newly capped powerhouse Asenathi Ntlabakanye could get the nod. Meanwhile, Vincent Koch could get a rare start for the Boks, but 51 of his 63 Tests have come off the bench, and we’d expect that trend to continue.
2 Malcolm Marx
Another position where it’s anyone’s guess who will get the starting role. Bongi Mbonambi has been a regular in the number two jumper in recent seasons with Malcolm Marx on the bench, but the latter started three of the four incoming series matches. Marnus van der Merwe also shone against the Baa-Baas and Georgia, but we believe that Marx will be entrusted with the starting jersey.
1 Ox Nche
With Gerhard Steenekamp sidelined and Thomas du Toit rested, there are three loosehead prop options in the Springboks squad: Ox Nche, Jan-Hendrik Wessels and Boan Venter.
1 Ox Nche
With Gerhard Steenekamp sidelined and Thomas du Toit rested, there are three loosehead prop options in the Springboks squad: Ox Nche, Jan-Hendrik Wessels and Boan Venter.
Nche offers unrivalled Test experience in the position and will surely get the starting role. The only reason this might not be the case is if the Bok coaching team decides to start Wessels or Venter and have Nche as an insurance policy on the bench. However, with the prospect of facing Wallabies powerhouse Taniela Tupou, who looked to have rediscovered his form in the third Lions Test, surely Nche starts.
Replacements
16 Bongi Mbonambi, 17 Jan-Hendrik Wessels, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 RG Snyman, 20 Ruan Nortje, 21 Kwagga Smith, 22 Grant Williams, 23 Manie Libbok
The starting line-up was tough enough to predict, and the bench is not any easier, if not more challenging. Erasmus could easily pick a 5-3, 6-2 or a 7-2 split on the bench to face the Wallabies. The selections in the run-on team will absolutely influence the bench split, too.
A 6-2 seems the most likely as South Africa look to make the most of their depth in the forward pack. We’ve predicted that the Bok coaches will select two second-rowers among the six forwards, a notable change from the last time they faced the Wallabies when they were enduring an injury crisis in the position. After standout shifts in July, it’s hard to see Nortje not making the 23 as he edges ahead of Mostert while Wessels nudges ahead of Venter for the back-up loosehead role.
As for the backs, if Williams isn’t starting, then he makes the bench and then it’s between Esterhuizen, Libbok and Feinberg-Mngomezulu for the final spot among the replacements.
