The Tennessee Volunteers have proven they are serious contenders for the National Championship, but here are five reasons that could prevent them from winning it all.
The NCAA Tournament bracket is set, and Tennessee basketball is preparing to play Saint Peter’s in the first round. The Vols are the No. 1/2 seed in the West region, which puts them in a good spot to make a run throughout late March, but there are some things holding them back.
Tennessee has consistently been one of the best teams in the country. Every SEC team did their best against the Vols all season long, but at the end, there were some problems. Tennessee may have exited the NCAA Tournament early since they ended up winning some of those games and losing a few others.
One of the best squads Rick Barnes has assembled since moving to Knoxville is this one. The Vols’ rugged play, effective offense and defense, and breakout player Dalton Knecht should make them favorites to make a run at the Final Four this year. Despite their excellent start to the season, the Vols will not win the national championship this year for the following five reasons.
1. Foul Trouble
One big issue the Vols have faced down the stretch is foul trouble. We saw how it can change Tennessee’s play on both ends of the court against Alabama. In that game, Jonas Aidoo and Tobe Awaka earned two fouls each within the first six minutes.
This forced Tennessee to play one-dimensional basketball throughout the rest of the game, neutralizing Tennessee’s ability to be physical down low and score points in the paint. Alabama took advantage of the Vols’ lack of big men on its roster and forced Tennessee to keep the ball around the three-point line.
Tennessee has a deep roster, but if the wrong guys fall into early foul trouble, the Vols can become one-dimensional or play a game they are not used to playing. If Tennessee wants to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament, it has to make sure it stays out of foul trouble, especially early in the game.
2. Perimeter Play
Tennessee has the ability to shoot the three, but things can quickly get out of hand when they depend on their perimeter shooting to stay in a game or mount a comeback. Although the Vols have a player in Dalton Knecht who can shoot from anywhere on the court at any moment and get hot, Tennessee shouldn’t bank on him to make three-pointers.
Tennessee’s three-point percentage in 31 games is 34.6%, which is not very good. With a three-point percentage of 148th in the US, the Vols are positioned between Grand Canyon and San Jose State.Just because you can shoot the three doesn’t mean you should, as Tennessee must keep in mind as they prepare for the NCAA Tournament.
3. Post Presence
Tennessee’s strength isn’t making three-pointers, but they do a great job in the paint, which is one of the main reasons Tennessee has become a threat for a national championship this year. The Vols won’t be able to be effective and efficient offensively if Aidoo, Awaka, and the others can’t establish their post presence early in games.
Barnes’s teaching style is anchored by his physical play and presence in the paint. For the Vols to gain and maintain the upper hand over their rivals, he must stress this throughout the competition. Few teams in the country can match the Volunteers’ athletic prowess and strength of paint and post presence.
4. Depth
Tennessee’s depth makes them adaptable, but it may also work against them if specific players pick up early fouls or if supporting players aren’t able to contribute effectively to the game.
Although I don’t think anyone is expecting the bench and supporting cast to step up and win the NCAA Tournament, Tennessee does have some guys who aren’t in the top five that have the ability to win games.
This was observed in the case of Jahmai Mashack versus Alabama. Although it is uncommon, Jordan Gainey has also had a couple games when he scored 15 or more points. To go on a deep run, the Vols cannot run into foul trouble or encounter problems that compel them to rely heavily on their bench for meaningful contributions.
5. Dalton Knecht
While Dalton Knecht could be a big reason Tennessee makes a Final Four run and wins a national championship, he could also be the reason the Vols don’t make a deep run in the tournament. That’s not directly his fault because he is a problem for opponents, but because his teammates can put the ball in his hands and watch and not play basketball.
If Knecht has the hot hand, feed him, but he’s not the only shooter on Tennessee’s roster. Is he the best participant? Definitely. Even if he doesn’t have the ball in his hands, can he still win? Indeed. Because they are aware of his style of play, defenses will try to double and triple-team him all game long.
Instead of settling and watching Knecht with the ball in his hand, Tennessee needs to seize this opportunity and utilize it to highlight the deficiencies of their opponents.
Although it wouldn’t surprise me if Knecht scored thirty or more points at least once during the NCAA Tournament, neither his teammates nor we as supporters should anticipate that from him each and every time out. The Vols run the risk of making a mistake and dropping a game they shouldn’t if they intend to depend on Knecht for 30 or 40 points every game.
