The biggest criticism of J.J. McCarthy is out of his control. But those who watched McCarthy closely at Michigan know it is fair.
McCarthy, a polarizing quarterback prospect in the 2024 NFL Draft, does not have the same statistical resume as top signal-callers like Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye. Of those four quarterbacks, the consensus top four, McCarthy finished with the fewest passing yards in 2023, and by a wide margin. He also threw nearly 100 fewer passes than Maye, who attempted the most (425) of the quartet, and 50 fewer than Williams (388).
“It’s real, right?” Aaron McMann, a beat reporter who has covered Michigan football for M Live Media Group since 2017, told NESN.com during a phone interview.
“Michigan didn’t throw the ball a ton. I think that is certainly a knock against him because he just doesn’t have as much film as the other quarterbacks do.”
There were seven games in 2023 where McCarthy threw the ball 20 or fewer times, including an eight-attempt win against Penn State. There were five games where he didn’t throw for a touchdown. And in 2022, he threw 18 or fewer passes in five games, including Michigan’s season opener when he still was competing for the starting job.
That is how the Wolverines were developed under former head coach Jim Harbaugh. Michigan attempted 37.5 rushes and 24.1 passes on average each game. It included Blake Corum, one of the best running backs in the country, who had the honor of playing behind one of the top offensive lines alongside McCarthy.
McMann stated, “When they did throw the ball, it wasn’t always deep down the field.” There were checkpoints at times and slant paths over the middle at other times. They weren’t very far away. It might cause some NFL teams to hesitate.
Last season, McCarthy completed 72.3% of his throws. Nevertheless, 2,991 passing yards—or 12.4 yards per completion—came from just 240 completions.
Story continues below advertisement
“But the one thing about him is, when they did utilize his arm, he was as efficient as they get,” McMann added. “If you look at the efficiency numbers — quarterback rating, etc. — they’re off the charts.”
The narrative surrounding McCarthy’s college production isn’t anything new. It’s been discussed at length in the period preceding the draft. Even though some who saw McCarthy play at Michigan think there is something to it, they also think he would have more production if he was a part of an offense that depended on him.
Austin Meek, who has covered Michigan football for The Athletic for the past five seasons, said of the player, “He really does have a pretty special skillset, and he didn’t always get to show that at Michigan.” “He only needed to assist the offense; he didn’t have to carry it out. However, he had a few plays during his career that truly made you think, “Wow, this guy really has something special,” when he needed to make plays.
It’s why some draft experts and analysts view McCarthy as more of an unknown than Williams, Daniels and Maye. Whichever team selects McCarthy is making a projection on his ceiling rather than college stats.
“A few years down the road could J.J. McCarthy develop into that kind of quarterback? Absolutely,” Meek said. “I don’t think there’s a ceiling on what he can do just because of the offense he played in in college. I think it just means there is more unknown.”
I don’t think there’s a ceiling on what he can do just because of the offense he played in in college
One thing that is known about McCarthy? He’s a winner.
“You can’t get past that,” Meek said. “He’s been successful at every level of football.”
Both McMann and Meek saw it first hand the last two seasons. McCarthy, a five-star recruit who won IMG Academy’s first football national championship and was named Florida’s Player of the Year, went 27-1 as the Wolverines starter.
McCarthy won the starting job in the second week of the 2022 season. At the time, Harbaugh gave senior Cade McNamara and then-sophomore McCarthy one regular-season start each to prove themselves. McCarthy completed all four of his attempts during McNamara’s start in Week 1, and then 11 of his 12 passes in his start against Hawaii in Week 2.
“I think the way he handled that situation, with a veteran quarterback that he was competing against, and kept the team together and was able to make that transition, that was kind of when I felt like, ‘OK, this guy has the makeup to be a really successful quarterback,’” Meek said. “It was a really intense situation, and the type of situation that could have gone south in a hurry if the team had been divided, if J.J. hadn’t handled it well.”
It’s those sorts of intangibles that apparently have played a role in McCarthy’s rise up the draft boards. In recent weeks, McCarthy has been linked to the Washington Commanders, who hold the second overall pick, along with the New England Patriots, who own No. 3, and first-round trade-up candidates like the Minnesota Vikings.
While McMann acknowledged the NFL draft “silly season” is in full effect, making just about anything that surfaces now not fully reliable, neither McMann nor Meek have been surprised to see McCarthy’s recent rise.
One reason behind it, they believe, is the fact McCarthy performed well at the NFL Scouting Combine and Michigan Pro Day. He made throws some questioned whether or not he could make. Another reason, they believe, could be because league evaluators have had more time to watch his tape. McCarthy didn’t announce he was entering the 2024 NFL Draft until mid-January, after some questioned whether or not he would return to Michigan. The uncertainty might have limited the amount of time evaluators had to study McCarthy.
The two college football reporters, not to be confused as draft experts, believe McCarthy is a first-round prospect and worthy of an early selection.
“If you really watched him closely during his college career, watched every throw, you saw things that went beyond the box score or stats,” Meek said. “There were just some throws he made in some games where you’re just like, ‘That is definitely an NFL throw.’”
Story continues below advertisement
It was reported last week Patriots de facto general manager Eliot Wolf was “pushing hard” for McCarthy. NFL draft expert Tony Pauline reported Wolf is “in love” and even said it seems like McCarthy will be New England’s pick.
Will that prove to be the case? We won’t find that out until April 25. (Again, “silly season.”)
But should McCarthy come to New England, it would be a different scenario than many he has faced in the past. Unlike the football factory of IMG Academy or College Football Playoff-qualifying Wolverines, the Patriots lack high-end talent on the offensive side of the ball. McCarthy might not have a game-changing receiver like other young signal-callers, and he might have a talent-depleted group in front of him. The Patriots haven’t done much this offseason to improve either position from last year, though the draft can change that.
“If he went to a team like the Patriots, who have some holes to fill on the offense, I think that would be a tough situation for any quarterback. I think it would be a tough situation for him,” Meek said. “Probably ideally for any quarterback, but I think especially for him, having a chance to learn behind a veteran quarterback would be the ideal scenario.”
McMann agreed.
He believes it would take McCarthy time to adjust, which is common. But McMann also hinted a scenario that could be detrimental to McCarthy’s development and made for flashbacks of Mac Jones’ 2023 campaign.
“He (McCarthy) has a tendency to force things when he wants to get something done and I have to imagine if he does that in the NFL, it’s probably going to hurt him,” McMann said. “And I wonder, too, if he doesn’t have the line in front of him, if he doesn’t have the playmakers around him, does he feel like he needs to create things and do those things? Whether that’s with the Patriots or wherever he ends up going.”
